Final 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates (April 2022)

Summary 

In a December 10, 2021, Federal Register notice, LSC invited comments on the estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA).  LSC used the preliminary estimates that ETA provided for grant allocations starting January 1, 2022. 

Based on the comments received in response to the Federal Register notice, ETA has revised the estimates published in December. The comments and the revisions are summarized below and in the Federal Register 87 FR 26228 (May 3, 2022).  Because the initial grant allocations for 2022 were based on the preliminary estimates published in December 2021, LSC will adjust the grant allocations for the remainder of 2022 to ensure that total grant allocations for 2022 are based on the final estimates.

Summary of Comments and Revisions

The National Legal Aid & Defender Association, Agricultural Worker Program Section (Section) submitted the only comments in response to the Federal Register notice. They provided no substantive comments about the preliminary estimates but indicated they had not fully analyzed the preliminary estimates and therefore might request adjustments to the 2021 estimates once their analysis was complete.  

After the comment period, the Section submitted questions about the data sets and methods used to estimate the population of H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers.  After reviewing the Section’s comments, ETA determined that a revision of the estimation methodology could provide a more accurate estimate of the number of these H-2 workers.  ETA proceeded to revise the methodology and provided more accurate estimates of the H-2 worker population and the total agricultural worker population.  The Section also requested additional information to enable its members to better understand the estimation methodology.  ETA provided additional supplemental materials in response to this request.  LSC is using ETA’s revised estimates for 2022 grant allocations.

Conclusion

LSC has updated the population estimates of agricultural workers based on the revised methods that ETA has used to estimate the population of H-2 workers and is using the revised estimates for its 2022 grant allocations.  The revised estimate of the number of H-2 workers increased the estimate of the national agricultural worker population by .16% and resulted in small increases or decreases in state estimates.  This revision will result in corresponding changes in 2022 grant allocations for Agricultural Worker service areas.  Because the initial grant allocations for 2022 were based on the preliminary estimates published in December 2021, LSC will adjust the grant allocations for the remainder of 2022 to ensure that total grant allocations for 2022 are based on the final estimates.

The following materials provide detailed information about the revised estimates and ETA’s estimation methods and supplemental materials.  (Note that the ETA estimates and estimation methodology were developed under contract by JBS International Inc., the ETA contractor for the National Agricultural Worker Survey.)  
 

• Table: Final Estimates of the 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population, Summary Table. Provides ETA’s final 2021 estimates nationally and by state of the LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population.  This replaces “Table I: Summary Table of National and State Estimates of The LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population” published in December 2021.
• Table: “Final Estimates of the Number of H-2 Workers by State.”  Provides the updated estimates of the number of H-2 Workers by state and compares the updated estimates with the initial estimates.
• Memorandum: JBS International, “Using Fiscal Year 2016 2017 and 2018 Data to Estimate the Number of 2017 H-2 Workers.” Explains the methods used to develop revised estimates of H-2 workers with the data available from the Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC). 
• Table: “Top-Down State-Level Estimates of Active Farmworkers-2021.” Shows the data and calculations from which the figures in the November 5th memo, Appendix B, Table 1, Column B “Total Number of Active Farmworkers in the State” are derived.  
• Memorandum: JBS International, “Assessment of the Major Changes Between the 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Poverty Population Estimates.” Provides a high-level overview of farm labor market changes over the last decade that likely account for the changes in five components/factors in the 2021 and 2016 population estimates.  
• Table: Data Sources and Calculations -- Final Estimates of the Numbers of H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers. This replaces Table III published in December 2021.
• Table: “Comparison of the Preliminary and Final 2021 Estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population.” Shows the differences between the preliminary and final estimates of LSC Agricultural Worker Population by state. 
• Table: “Major Differences between 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates.” This replaces the table with the same name published in December 2021.

 

2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates (December 2021 Update)

Public Comments 

LSC invites public comment on the 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA).

• Deadline for comments: January 10, 2022
• Notice published in the Federal Register with instructions for submitting comments. 86 Fed. Reg. 70,539 (Dec. 10, 2021)
• Written comments must be submitted to agworkerpopulation@lsc.gov with attachments in Acrobat PDF format.

Background

The Legal Services Corporation (LSC) has received 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA). LSC will use these population estimates to allocate funding to service areas for Basic Field—Agricultural Worker grants for 2022, 2023, and 2024. 

The “LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population” is comprised of the populations of active agricultural workers, agricultural workers who are temporarily out of the agricultural workforce, retired agricultural workers, and dependents of these agricultural workers, who are in poverty and are U.S. citizens (or who meet the LSC eligibility criteria for services if they are not U.S. citizens).

The Legal Services Corporation (LSC) and the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA) executed an interagency agreement under which ETA agreed to provide LSC with population estimates on which to allocate funding for specialized legal assistance to the LSC Agricultural Worker Population. JBS International, Inc. (JBS), ETA’s contractor for the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS), undertook the estimation work, per the NAWS contract terms.

The 2021 estimates update those ETA provided to LSC in 2016. The 2021 estimation methodology is based on the methodology used to develop the 2016 estimates. The 2021 methodology incorporates changes to improve the accuracy and validity of the estimates. (The 2016 estimates, estimation methodology, and process for the development of the estimates can be accessed at: Agricultural-Worker Population Estimates—2016 Update).

For questions about the estimation methodology, the estimates and related materials, email: agworkerpopulation@lsc.gov.

 

2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates Informational Materials

Information about the 2021 estimates is provided in the following documents:

• Memorandum from JBS International Inc. to Daniel Carroll, Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration/Office of Policy Development and Research, “Estimating the National Size and State Distribution of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population,” November 5, 2021.  (“2021 Estimation Methodology”.) This memorandum sets forth the methodology used to derive the 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population.
  • Note: Information about the methods used to develop revised estimates of H-2 workers is provided in the JBS International memorandum titled “Using Fiscal Year 2016 2017 and 2018 Data to Estimate the Number of 2017 H-2 Workers” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above). 
• Memorandum from JBS International Inc. to Daniel Carroll, Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration/Office of Policy Development and Research, "Supporting Materials Concerning the 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimates", December 17, 2021.
• 2021 Estimation Methodology Appendix B Tables, which include:
  • Table I: Summary Table of National and State Estimates of The LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population
    • Note: This table has been replaced by the table titled “Final Estimates of the 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population, Summary Table” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above). 
  • Table II: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Base Estimates of the Number of Active Agricultural Workers
  • Table III: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Estimate the Numbers of LSC Agricultural Workers that Are H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers.
    • Note: This table has been replaced by the table titled “Data Sources and Calculations Used to Estimate the Numbers of LSC Agricultural Workers that Are H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers – April 2022” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above). 
  • Table IV: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the Number of Active LSC Agricultural Workers that Are Not H-2 Workers.
  • Table V: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the Number of LSC Dependents of Active Agricultural Workers.
  • Table VI: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the LSC Out-Of-The Workforce Population (Number of LSC Out-of-Workforce Agricultural Workers and LSC Dependents of Out-of-Workforce Agricultural Workers)
  • Table VII: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of Size of the LSC Retiree Agricultural Population (LSC Retired Agricultural Workers and LSC dependents of retirees)
  • Table VIII: Estimated Number of Workers Unauthorized and In Poverty Potentially Eligible Based on Provisions of Section 1626.4 of the LSC Regulations
     
• Major Differences between 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates

 

December 2021 Webinar about the 2021 Estimates

• LSC Agricultural Worker Population 2021 Estimates (Dec 21, 2021) Webinar Recording
• LSC Agricultural Worker Population 2021 Estimates (Dec 21, 2021) Webinar PPT Slide Deck

 

Past Events and Other Resources

Webinar on Updating the 2016 Methodology (July 8, 2020)

This webinar summarized the work ETA will be conducting, described the 2016 methodology, identified potential changes to the 2016 estimation methodology, and solicited participants’ questions and suggestions.

• Video: Online Briefing—Updated Estimate of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population (92 minutes)
• Slide Deck 1—LSC Staff: LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update—Overview
• Slide Deck 2—ETA (Daniel Carroll and Susan Gabbard): LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update—ETA

Briefing to National Legal Aid and Defender Association Farmworker Section (May 21, 2020)

In this briefing, LSC staff provided to the Farmworker Section of the National Legal Aid and Defender Association an overview of the estimation methodology adopted in 2016, the allocation formula, and plans for the 2020 update.

• Slide Deck: LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimates & Funding Allocations

Stakeholder Input

• National Legal Aid and Defender Association Farmworker Section Questions and Comments (July 1, 2020)